Saturday, September 5, 2009

Bagan Pinang Buy Election... my prediction....

In Teluk Kemang by election just after 1999 general election, Ruslan Kasim of PKR got majority of the postal votes... it's due to BN's Indian candidate... Army's guideline or rule of thumb in voting is... if a malay vs Malay.. vote BN... if BN is a non Malay, Opposition is a Malay, vote opposition... And other ranks' military personal vote is monitored or voted by their officers... My brother is an army officer (he is in that camp in PD..) when I asked him on this, he just laugh and never answered my question, which explains itself...

In Bagan Pinang, there are some camps.. PUSASDA postal votes only consists of recruit instructors and recruits don;t vote as they will be there for only 6 months at most...

then there is Kem Garrison and IPDA - Institut Pengurusan Darat... which are instructors too...
There is Army Musium staffs too but they are not that many...
the bulk of the postal votes I believe are from Artillery...

based on information I get, I did made some calculations with some assumptions... BN will win with reduced majority... of 1980 votes...

Total voters -14,000
vote cast - 11,000 = 78.57% tournouts...
Postal votes - 4900 = 35% all vote for BN

Non Malay - 34% 30% will vote for PR, 4% vote for BN
Malay 66% - including postal votes... without postal votes = 31%...
of which 11% vote PR and 20% vote BN

lets sum up...
BN :
35% postal votes
20% Malay votes
4% non Malay votes
total = 59% 0.59 X 11,000 = 6490

PR (PAS) :
11% Malay votes
30% non Malay votes
total = 41% = 0.41 X 11,000 = 4510

majority for BN = 6490 - 4510 = 1980 majority which is a reduced majority... which is a moral victory for PR/PAS...

so for PR to take this seat.. they need some 10% of 35% postal vote and if it can, some percentage of civilian Malay votes too from BN....

2 comments:

Jeffry said...

SLM..HEHEHE BLOG GOBLOG

AMNOBODO said...

hek eleh....bang anak peghelihs...itu Jeffry manyiak jeles sama abang tuh...konon2 dier nyer canggih ler..piiraahhhh...jgn layan ini urang yer bang anak peghelih..huhuhuh

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